NBA: The Race For an Eastern Conference Playoff Seed

(Written on March 18, 2017)

5 teams in the East are fighting for 3 playoff seeds. Who will make it through?

The Pacers, Bucks, and the Heat are already in a spot, while the Pistons and the Bulls are on the outside looking in. But with only 3.5 games separating these 5 teams (as of this writing), it may change. Who will make it through?

The Indiana Pacers are the highest ranked team out of these 5, but had their ups and downs this season. They're great at home but are terrible on the road (11-23). Indy got a big win against the Miami Heat on Sunday that felt like a potential tone-setter. But then the Pacers fell to the Knicks, which quickly halted momentum. And if it seems like that sort of fits-and-starts dichotomy has come to define this Pacers season, it's because it has. Since Feb. 16, Indy has alternated wins and losses. That's a full month of one step forward and one step back, and it's getting to the point where a streak of any kind would feel strange. More broadly, it's hard to be this inconsistent when Paul George keeps being spectacular. He hit the Hornets for a season-high 39 points to close out Indy's ranking session Wednesday and is averaging 25.6 points and 8.8 rebounds over his last five games. Will they hold on? On paper, yes. A 2.5 game lead over the Pistons who have lost 3 games in a row helps, but with tough teams coming up in the last parts of the season, they might not hold on to the 6th seed.

The Milwaukee Bucks' recent run with Giannis Antetokounmpo being an extraterrestrial force, and Khris Middleton stabilizing a shaky perimeter shooting corps, has been great. But there's been a defensive component that has also quietly contributed to the Bucks' stretch of eight wins in their last ten games. They're limiting opponents' three-point attempts. Before the All-Star break, Milwaukee ranked 28th in the NBA by allowing 30.2 long-range tries per 100 possessions. Since the break, they've trimmed that number to 24.1, which ranks fifth. The sample is still small, but that's a good explanation of why the Bucks defense has climbed from 21st before the All-star break to 12th after it. Even Jabari Parker's injury has not affected the Bucks' recent surge. Will they hold on? Currently in playoff position, Milwaukee must lean on its improved defense to sustain their current playoff spot.

The Miami Heat were awful early on, losing players like Chris Bosh and Justice Winslow, who  both announced that they would miss the entire season, At January 1, they were one of the lottery teams as their record was a measly 11-30. But a huge turnaround had them winning 13 straight games, with Goran Dragic and Dion Waiters leading the way. Up to this writing they are 22-5 and are now in a playoff spot. Players like James Johnson, Wayne Ellington, and Luke Babbitt have helped the Heat become a prolific three point shooting team, one that uses drives from Waiters and Dragic to suck in the defense and then kick out the ball to open shooters. Since the win streak began, the Heat are 6th in offensive efficiency and 3rd in defensive efficiency in the entire league. But just a few days ago they lost Waiters due to an injury. Will they hold on? Holding on to the 8th seed by half a game, it is hard to say, but if they continue their winning ways, they would have a great shot making the playoffs.

The Detroit Pistons have been struggling with lots of ups and downs this season. If the Pistons hope to separate themselves from the morass of mediocrity stumbling into playoff spots in the East, it'll have to be more than just any team."We haven't been good in back-to-backs anyway, and that's the worst we've been," Pistons head coach Stan Van Gundy said after the Utah loss, via Rod Beard of the Detroit News. "We didn't play either game well at all and really didn't have a legitimately good stretch in either game." If the Pistons can maintain the level of play they’ve shown since the beginning of February, they can definitely make the playoffs - with or without a move at the trade deadline. The bench, particularly Ish Smith, have played really well this month. Will they make the playoffs? Just two of Detroit's nine remaining games in March will come against playoff teams. This upcoming stretch could make or break the Pistons' season. If they miss the playoffs, it won’t be because they had a huge road trip to the west coast or because the schedule suddenly got tough on them. It’ll be because they didn’t play well enough during a relatively easy portion of the schedule. The Pistons should make the playoffs. Whether or not they will is entirely up to them.

The Chicago Bulls are in a tight position. As a surprise to exactly no one, the Chicago Bulls‘ up-and-down season has resulted in them fighting for their playoff lives. Similar to last year, the Bulls have posted impressive wins against some of the top teams in the league such as the Cleveland Cavaliers, whom they have beaten three times, the Raptors, Spurs and yes, even the Golden State Warriors. But the Bulls have also dropped games to the likes of the Lakers, Suns, Mavericks (twice) and a New York Knicks team (twice) that will miss the playoffs for the fourth straight season. With just 13 games remaining in the 2016-17 campaign, the Bulls sit at 10th in the Eastern Conference standings, one game behind the eighth-place Detroit Pistons. They could be in a better position right now, but players like Nikola Mirotic is having the worst season of his career in a Bulls uniform. In fact, Mirotic is averaging career lows in points (9.4 per game), field goal percentage (39 percent) and three-point shooting (31 percent). Then they lost Dwyane Wade last week against the Grizzlies. At least they still have Jimmy G. Buckets on their team. He is still a clutch player. Over the next seven games, things will not get any easier for the Bulls. During that stretch, they will face six teams who are currently jockeying for position in the playoff race. The good news is the Bulls will conclude the 2016-17 campaign with a somewhat favorable schedule. Out of the seven games they will play in April, only one of those teams (the Atlanta Hawks) is above the .500 mark. Will they make the playoffs? It comes down to their rotation. They are going to have to rely on their veteran players who know what it takes to win on a nightly basis.

So there you have it! If I picked who will make the playoffs and who wouldn't, my standings would look like this:

6. Bucks 42-40
7. Pacers 41-41
8. Bulls 40-42
9. Pistons 40-42
10. Heat 40-42

It will be very close, but tiebreakers make it that the Bulls are seeded higher than the Pistons because of their division record. The Heat have a tough schedule and will fall apart. The Pacers and the Bucks have enough firepower to make it in in my opinion.